MACRO INTELLIGENCE MEMO

TO: Corporate Treasury & Institutional Banking Customers

FROM: Financial Services Procurement Division

DATE: June 2030

RE: Banking Consolidation & Your Negotiating Leverage

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

If you are a corporate treasury manager, CFO, or procurement executive responsible for banking relationships, you are in an unusually strong negotiating position in June 2030.

Banks are under margin pressure from AI automation and regulatory scrutiny. Competition for large corporate deposits and credit facilities is intense. Fintech alternatives are viable for many banking functions.

You have leverage. You should use it.

THE SHIFT IN BANKING ECONOMICS

The margin structure of commercial banking has compressed significantly:

• Lending margins have declined 15-25% due to AI commoditization
• Deposit margins have declined 10-20% due to stablecoin and fintech competition
• Transaction fees are under pressure from fintech alternatives
• Advisory fees are declining due to competition from technology-driven advisory

Banks are less profitable and therefore less willing to maintain unprofitable relationships. This creates opportunity for customers:

Large corporations with sophisticated treasury operations can now negotiate: - Lending rates 20-30 basis points lower - Deposit fees reduced or eliminated - Enhanced service levels in exchange for relationship commitment - Technology integration (APIs, real-time clearing, etc.)

THE SPECIFIC NEGOTIATION LEVERS

By June 2030, you should be leveraging:

1. Competition: You have genuine alternatives - Fintech platforms for receivables financing, supply chain financing - Direct market access for medium-term funding (bond issuance) - Stablecoins and crypto platforms for some treasury functions - Multiple traditional banks (consolidation means fewer options, but you can still pit them against each other)

2. Technology expectations: Banks are racing to deploy technology; you can demand integration - API access for real-time cash visibility - Blockchain-based settlement for faster clearing - AI-powered forecasting and liquidity optimization - Mobile and digital platforms for transaction execution

3. Data: Your transaction data is valuable to banks - Banks want your deposits (liquidity) - Banks want your transaction data (underwriting signal for your supply chain financing) - You can negotiate favorable terms in exchange for data access

4. Cost reduction: Banks are under cost pressure - They are consolidating technology platforms - They are automating operations - They want to transfer savings to customers who commit to long-term relationships

THE BANKING RELATIONSHIP STRATEGY FOR CORPORATES

By June 2030, sophisticated corporates are adopting a segmented banking strategy:

Tier 1: Relationship banks (2-3 large banks) - Core transaction banking - Relationship-based lending - Treasury advisory - Commitment: significant deposit balances, transaction volume

Tier 2: Specialist providers - Trade finance (specialized bank or fintech) - Receivables financing (fintech) - Supply chain financing (fintech or specialist bank)

Tier 3: Market access - Direct bond issuance for medium-term funding - Stablecoin-based treasury (for liquidity management) - Payment rails via fintech

This segmented approach allows you to: - Negotiate hard with Tier 1 banks (you have alternatives) - Use Tier 2 and Tier 3 providers for specialized needs (not all in one bank) - Reduce reliance on any single bank (reduces supplier power)

THE DEPOSIT & CASH MANAGEMENT OPPORTUNITY

One specific area where you have significant leverage is deposit and cash management.

Historically, corporations had to maintain deposits at banks (for liquidity, for clearing, for relationship). Banks were the only option for certain functions.

By June 2030, you have alternatives: - Stablecoins for some liquidity needs (immediate settlement, no counterparty risk to bank) - Fintech platforms for cash management and automation - Treasury management software that aggregates across banks (you don't need "all in one bank")

Banks are competing hard for deposits because: - Deposits are their funding source - Regulatory rules (deposit insurance) create natural deposit franchise - But AI and automation means they need fewer deposits than before

You can negotiate: - Zero or negative deposit fees (banks will pay for large balances) - Enhanced interest rates on deposit balances - Free treasury management services - Priority for credit facilities if you maintain deposits

THE LENDING NEGOTIATION

For credit facilities, your leverage is:

1. Capital markets alternatives: You can access capital directly via bond markets, loans from private credit firms, or other sources
2. Fintech alternatives: Supply chain financing, receivables financing, working capital lines are available from fintech platforms
3. Bank competition: Though consolidated, banks still compete for large credits

Negotiate: - All-in pricing down 30-40 basis points from what you'd have accepted 2 years ago - Flexibility in covenants (banks are less strict due to AI risk assessment) - Faster turnaround (AI underwriting is faster) - Commitment periods (lock in pricing for 3-5 years)

THE PAYMENT & SETTLEMENT OPPORTUNITY

One frontier is payment and settlement efficiency. By June 2030, corporates that demand real-time payment capabilities, blockchain-based clearing, and API-driven automation can negotiate competitive advantage:

Banks using modern infrastructure can offer: - Next-day settlement (instead of 1-2 day standard) - Blockchain-based payment rails (for certain corridors) - APIs for payment automation - Real-time visibility into payment status

Fintech platforms can offer: - Same-day international payments (via stablecoins, payment rails) - Cheaper payment corridors (blockchain vs. SWIFT) - Programmable payments

You can demand: - Banks implement modern payment infrastructure or lose business to fintech - API access to payment systems - Transparent, lower pricing for payments

THE TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATION LEVER

A powerful lever you have is technology integration. Banks are investing heavily in technology but many are behind fintech in UX and integration capability.

You can demand: - Real-time cash visibility (APIs, dashboards) - Automated reporting and reconciliation - Integration with your treasury management system (Kyriba, Broadridge, others) - Mobile and app-based access - AI-powered insights and recommendations

Banks that are technology-forward will offer these. Banks that are not will lose your business.

THE GEOPOLITICAL LEVER

An additional lever (in some contexts) is geopolitical/ESG. By June 2030, some corporates are using banking relationships to achieve geopolitical or sustainability goals:

• Banking in allied countries (moving away from China-exposed banks)
• Banking in countries with strong labor/environmental standards
• Banking with institutions supporting sustainable finance

If this is important to your organization, you can negotiate for: - Banks in specific geographies - Banks with specific ESG commitments - Enhanced rates/terms in exchange for stability

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CORPORATE CUSTOMERS

By June 2030:

1. Audit your banking relationships: Are you paying competitive pricing? Getting modern technology? Receiving appropriate service?

2. Develop alternatives: Identify fintech and direct market alternatives for 20-30% of your banking needs

3. Segment your strategy: Separate relationship banking (use 2-3 large banks) from specialized services (use fintechs/platforms)

4. Negotiate aggressively: Banks are under pressure; you have leverage

5. Demand technology: Real-time visibility, API access, and modern tools are table-stakes

6. Lock in favorable terms: Once negotiated, commit to multi-year relationships to lock in better pricing

You have more leverage in June 2030 than you have had in years. Use it to improve terms, reduce costs, and enhance service quality.