GENPACT EXECUTIVE CRISIS: THE PIVOT THAT MIGHT NOT WORK
Survival in a Post-BPO World
CONFIDENTIAL | Executive Leadership Only From: The 2030 Report — Urgent Assessment Date: June 2030
THE BRUTAL SITUATION
Your business model is dying. BPS revenue (68% of your 2027 profit) is declining 12% annually. Your pivot to "AI transformation services" is underfunded and understaffed. Your stock is down 67%. Your talent is leaving India for better opportunities. And your investors are pricing you for bankruptcy or acquisition.
You have 18-24 months to prove the pivot works, or Genpact will be acquired at USD 15-20/share (vs. USD 55 in 2021).
THE HARD DECISIONS
Decision 1: Double down on Digital Consulting or maintain BPS?
Current strategy: Sustain BPS while growing Digital Consulting. This is failing because: - BPS generates USD 2.7B revenue with 12% annual decline - Digital Consulting generates USD 400M revenue with 8% annual growth - Even if Digital Consulting grows 25%, it can't offset BPS declines
Better strategy: Explicitly harvest BPS, aggressively grow Digital Consulting
This requires: - Accepting BPS revenue decline 8-10% annually - Cutting BPS headcount 30-40% (from 85,000 to 50-60,000) - Investing USD 300-400M in Digital Consulting capability (hiring consultants, building practices) - Positioning Genpact as "AI transformation partner," not "BPO provider"
Decision 2: Where will Digital Consulting come from?
You can't build consulting capability from scratch competing with Accenture and Deloitte. You need: - Acquire consulting firms: Buy a mid-sized consulting firm (USD 300-500M valuation) to gain consulting credentials and talent - Hire from competitors: Offer top dollar to lure senior consultants from Accenture, Deloitte, PWC - Build partnerships: Partner with Anthropic, OpenAI, or other AI vendors to co-deliver AI transformation services
Decision 3: How do you handle 40,000+ departing employees?
Cutting BPS headcount from 85,000 to 50,000 means 35,000 people need to transition or leave. This requires: - Voluntary separation programs with significant severance - Retraining programs (transition some to Digital Consulting roles) - Geographic pivot (maybe consolidate India operations, open centers in Philippines, Mexico for lower cost)
THE 18-MONTH PLAN TO SAVE GENPACT
By Q4 2030: 1. Announce "Transformation 2.0" strategy: Harvest BPS, grow Consulting 2. Acquire a mid-tier consulting firm (USD 400-500M deal) 3. Announce voluntary separation program for BPS employees 4. Launch "Digital Consulting Academy" to retrain high-potential employees
By Q2 2031: 1. Complete first wave of BPS reduction (10,000 employees) 2. Integrate acquired consulting firm 3. Land 5-10 major "AI transformation" clients (proof of concept) 4. Announce USD 200M investment in Digital Consulting expansion
By Q4 2031: 1. BPS stabilizes at USD 2.3B (down from USD 2.7B) 2. Digital Consulting reaches USD 600M revenue (from USD 400M) 3. EBITDA margin stabilizes at 16% (vs. current 14%) 4. Stock re-rates to USD 20-22 (10x P/E)
THE BOTTOM LINE FOR THE BOARD
You're not saving the "old Genpact." That Genpact (global BPO giant) is gone. You're building a "new Genpact" (AI transformation consulting firm with legacy BPO cash cow).
By 2035, you'll be smaller (USD 3-3.5B revenue vs. USD 4.2B today), but more profitable and sustainable (16% EBITDA margin vs. 14% today). You'll have a consulting firm that competes with Accenture and Deloitte, not a BPO firm competing with TCS and Infosys.
This is the only realistic path forward. The alternative is slow decline to irrelevance.
The 2030 Report | Confidential Strategic Assessment | June 2030