COSTCO: GROWTH AT SATURATION
CEO Strategic Memo
June 2030 | CEO Edition
TO: Costco Leadership
FROM: CEO
RE: The Membership Growth Inflection
Our membership growth has decelerated from 6%+ to 2.7%. This is happening at exactly the moment when our valuation multiple implies 5-8% perpetual growth.
The market will begin pricing in this reality. We need to manage expectations and prove our business model remains valuable despite slower membership growth.
THE STRATEGIC REALITY
Market Saturation: - US market: 42% household penetration (vs. 38% in 2023) - Additional TAM: ~8% of households (upscale, high-income demographics) - This implies peak US membership around 50% penetration (2034-2035)
Solution: International expansion and e-commerce growth
International Expansion Target: - Add 150+ new international warehouses by 2035 (vs. ~50 historical CAGR) - This requires significant capital and execution risk
E-Commerce Expansion: - Currently 6% of revenue. Target: 12% by 2035 - This requires different operating model than warehouses - Lower margins than warehouse model
THE 2030-2035 GROWTH PLAN
Membership Growth: 2-3% CAGR (lower than historical) Same-Store Sales Growth: 2-3% CAGR (price + modest volume) E-Commerce Growth: 18-20% CAGR International Growth: 8-10% CAGR
Blended Revenue CAGR: 4.2% (vs. historical 6-8%)
Earnings Impact: Slower growth means multiple compression is likely
Our Job: Execute so well that investors accept slower growth because margins expand and capital efficiency improves
THE CAPITAL ALLOCATION QUESTION
How do we deploy capital given slower growth?
Option A: Increase dividend and buybacks (return cash to shareholders) - Current payout ratio: 28% - Could increase to 40-45% - This acknowledges slower growth and returns capital
Option B: Invest heavily in international and e-commerce - Requires $8-10B incremental capex annually - Uncertain ROI - Maintains growth narrative
Recommendation: Hybrid. Increase shareholder returns by $2-3B annually while investing $6-8B in growth initiatives.
This signals we're managing for value, not growth fantasy.
THE 24-MONTH PRIORITIES
- Manage Membership Growth Expectations: Guide investors to 2-3% growth
- Prove E-Commerce Economics: Hit 12%+ e-commerce penetration by 2033
- Accelerate International: Add 40+ international locations annually
- Maintain Margin: Keep operating margin at 11%+ despite growth slowdown
- Return Capital: Increase shareholder returns signal we're confident in business