MEMO FROM THE FUTURE: C3 AI
CEO Edition
BOARD STRATEGY SESSION June 2030
TO: C3 AI Board of Directors
FROM: Thomas Siebel, CEO
DATE: June 2030
SUBJECT: Competing with Hyperscalers and the Path to Enterprise AI Dominance
OPENING
C3 AI is an enterprise AI platform company. We've built the only no-code/low-code AI platform that non-tech companies can actually use to build AI applications. But we're facing an existential threat: hyperscalers (Google, AWS, Microsoft, Anthropic) are building competing platforms.
The question is: How do we remain relevant as an independent company when we're competing against companies 100x our size with unlimited capital?
This memo proposes a strategy that doesn't try to compete on raw resources, but on focus, specialization, and deep integration with enterprise workflows.
THE REALITY
Threats: - AWS SageMaker is expanding AI/ML capabilities aggressively - Microsoft Copilot stack includes enterprise AI tools - Google has Vertex AI and LLM infrastructure - Anthropic is building Claude-based enterprise solutions - These companies are giving away or subsidizing AI tools to lock in ecosystem
Our advantage: - We focus on non-tech companies (manufacturing, pharma, utilities, energy) - We've built application templates for specific industries - Our platform is easier to use than hyperscaler tools for non-data-scientists - We have deep relationships with enterprise CXOs who are skeptical of hyperscalers
The strategy: We can't compete on scale or capital. But we can compete on specialization and vertical depth. We become the "operating system for AI in traditional industries."
WHERE WE ARE
- Revenue: $636 million (growing 18% YoY)
- Customer count: 800+ (up from 650 one year ago)
- Average contract value: $2.1 million
- Gross margins: 72%
- Operating margins: -8% (unprofitable)
- Customer retention: 94%
The business model is strong. The question is: Can we achieve scale profitably?
THE OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity 1: Vertical Specialization
The play: Instead of being a horizontal platform, become the dominant AI platform for 3-4 key verticals: manufacturing, energy, pharma, utilities.
How: - Build industry-specific AI application templates (predictive maintenance for manufacturing, geological modeling for oil/gas, drug discovery for pharma) - Embed industry expertise in the platform (not just AI technology, but domain knowledge) - Partner with industry consultants to drive adoption - Build community and certification programs around vertical expertise
Estimated impact: - Become the de facto standard in each vertical - Higher switching costs (customers are betting on vertical expertise, not just AI capability) - Premium pricing (customers pay more for specialization) - Faster sales cycles (customers buy pre-built solutions, not custom platforms)
Timeline: 12-18 months to launch first three verticals
Opportunity 2: Integrated Workflows
The play: Move beyond "AI platform" to "AI-powered business processes" for enterprise customers.
How: - Build connectors into ERP, supply chain, maintenance, and financial systems - Package AI applications into business workflows (e.g., "Predictive Maintenance for Manufacturing" isn't a platform; it's a complete workflow that includes monitoring, prediction, work order generation, and scheduling) - Focus on outcomes (reduce downtime, improve yield, accelerate drug discovery) not on technical capabilities - Move toward outcome-based pricing (customer pays based on value delivered, not software seats)
Estimated impact: - Customers see tangible ROI faster - Stickier relationships (integrated into their operations) - Higher NRR (customers expand to more workflows) - Premium pricing (outcomes-based pricing can be 2-3x higher than platform pricing)
Timeline: 18-24 months to first integrated workflow launches
Opportunity 3: Leverage AI Partnerships
The play: Partner with leading AI labs (Anthropic, OpenAI) to integrate best-in-class LLMs into our platform, rather than building our own.
How: - Integrate Anthropic Claude, OpenAI GPT, Google Gemini into C3 platform - Build competitive moat through vertical integrations and business process workflows - Avoid the capital-intensive race of building foundational models - Focus on application excellence, not model training
Estimated impact: - Access to best AI models without $10B+ in training compute - Faster time-to-market for new capabilities - Lower capex - Focus on what we do best: enterprise application building
Timeline: Ongoing
MY RECOMMENDATION
Pursue vertical specialization as primary strategy, with integrated workflows as secondary. This plays to our strengths and avoids head-to-head competition with hyperscalers on horizontal platforms.
EXECUTION PLAN
Phase 1: Vertical Specialization (2030-2032)
- Launch industry-specific platforms for manufacturing, energy, pharma
- Build templates, integrate domain expertise, certification programs
- Target: 2,000+ customers by end of 2032 (vs. 800 today)
Phase 2: Integrated Workflows (2032-2034)
- Launch outcome-focused AI workflows integrated into enterprise processes
- Move toward outcome-based pricing
- Target: NRR 130%+, gross margins 75%+
Phase 3: Scale and Profitability (2034-2035)
- Achieve operating profitability
- Expand to 5,000+ customers
- Generate $2+ billion in annual revenue
FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS
By 2035:
- Revenue: $2.0-2.5 billion (from $636M today, 30%+ CAGR)
- Gross margins: 75-78% (up from 72% today)
- Operating margins: 25-30% (from -8% today)
- Customer count: 5,000+
- NRR: 130-140%
Stock target: $80-120 per share by 2035 (from $35 today, assuming horizontal expansion to 18-20x revenue multiple).
Tom
Confidential — Board of Directors Only