SAP SE — EXECUTIVE MEMO
"Crisis Management: The Path to Transformation or Decline"
To: Executive Board From: Chief Executive Officer Date: June 2030
SITUATION
SAP faces existential challenge. Software revenue declining. Customers migrating to cloud alternatives. Market capitalization down 35% since 2025. Execution risk on cloud/AI transformation is extreme.
2030 Performance: Revenue €31.2B (down 7% since 2025). Software licensing revenue down 16%. Cloud revenue up but at lower margins. Operating margin compressed to 18% from 28%.
THE CORE PROBLEM
Customers no longer need integrated monolithic ERP. They want modular, cloud-native, AI-enabled point solutions that they assemble into custom stacks: - Workday for HR/Finance - Salesforce for Sales/CRM - Coupa for Supply Chain - Specialized AI for forecasting, etc.
SAP's monolithic model is obsolete. Our transformation to cloud/AI has been too slow and insufficiently competitive.
STRATEGIC DECISION REQUIRED
Option A: Aggressive SaaS Transformation - Divest legacy business (support/licensing) - Position as pure cloud/AI player - Accept significant revenue/margin compression short-term - Risk: customer rebellion; revenue collapse 40-50% - Potential: rebuild as modern platform company
Option B: Managed Decline - Harvest legacy business (maximize profitability) - Selective investment in cloud/AI - Accept 2-3% annual revenue decline - Lower risk but lower upside
Option C: Acquisition Strategy - Acquire cloud/AI competitors (Workday, Coupa—not feasible at current valuations) - Attempt to rebuild through M&A - Risk: overpaying; integration risk - Potential: consolidation of fractured market
RECOMMENDATION
Pursue Option A with staged approach. The legacy business is a slow death. Better to accelerate transformation, accept short-term pain, and rebuild as cloud/AI company.
Action Plan: 1. Publicly announce legacy business end-of-life (2033-2035) 2. Aggressive pricing on cloud products to win share 3. M&A for cloud/AI capabilities (€3-5B annually) 4. Organization restructuring for cloud-first culture 5. Prepare board for revenue decline to €25-27B by 2032, then recovery
This is a 5-year transformation with significant execution risk. But inaction leads to slow decline.
BOARD APPROVAL REQUIRED
- Authorize legacy business wind-down strategy
- Approve cloud/AI M&A budget (€5B for 2030-2032)
- Accept near-term revenue/margin deterioration
- Restructuring authorization
Confidential board memo