NOVO NORDISK A/S — EXECUTIVE MEMO
"Managing Explosive Growth: Sustainability Beyond the Hype Cycle"
To: Group Management From: Chief Executive Officer Date: June 2030
We have experienced a once-in-a-generation business opportunity. Weight-loss drugs have gone from niche treatment to mass-market healthcare category. Novo Nordisk has captured leadership position.
But leadership is fragile. The market will intensify: Eli Lilly is aggressive, Amgen is entering, oral formulations are coming, biosimilar competition looms.
Our challenge is executing at scale while maintaining competitive advantage.
CURRENT STATE
Revenue: DKK 224B (132% growth since 2025) GLP-1 market share: 52% globally Weight-loss revenue: DKK 55-60B annualized (€7.8B) Operating margin: 38% (up from 31% in 2025)
CRITICAL DECISIONS
1. Manufacturing Capacity Expansion - Option A: Aggressive expansion (100B+ unit capacity by 2032); accept overinvestment risk - Option B: Capacity matching demand (50-60B unit capacity); risk underinvestment - Option C: Selective expansion + outsourcing; risk quality control
Recommendation: Option A. Manufacturing capacity is our competitive moat. Overinvestment is preferable to underinvestment. Commit DKK 15-20B capex through 2032.
2. Pricing Strategy vs. Market Share - Pressure from insurers/governments for 30-50% price reductions - Competitor entry creating pricing pressure - Volume potential enormous (100M+ patients globally)
Recommendation: Accept modest price compression (10-15% over 5 years) to maintain market share leadership. Volume growth will exceed price decline.
3. Oral Formulation Development - Oral versions likely superior to injectable (patient preference, lower cost to manufacture) - Patent expiration on semaglutide (2035-2038 varying by region) - Oral R&D investment: DKK 5-8B required for competitive positioning
Recommendation: Aggressive oral formulation investment. Transition from injectable to oral over 2030-2036 period.
4. M&A Strategy - Opportunities to acquire complementary companies (obesity medical devices, related therapeutics) - GLP-1 market evolution uncertain—complementary assets valuable - M&A budget: DKK 10-15B for 2030-2032
Recommendation: Selective M&A for obesity-related platforms and medical devices.
BOARD DECISIONS REQUIRED
- Approve DKK 15-20B capex for manufacturing expansion (2030-2032)
- Approve DKK 5-8B R&D budget for oral formulation development
- Authorize selective M&A (DKK 10-15B over 2030-2032)
- Accept pricing guidance allowing 10-15% price compression over 5 years
Confidential board memo