FORTESCUE LIMITED: SCALING FFI & DEFENDING MINING MOAT
The 2030 Report | CEO Memo | June 2030
FROM: Macro Intelligence Unit TO: CEO, Board of Directors RE: Strategic Priorities: FFI Scale-Up, Mining Automation, AI Leadership DATE: June 2030 CLASSIFICATION: Confidential - C-Suite
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FOR LEADERSHIP
Fortescue's iron ore mining is in a cyclical peak. The strategic question is how to deploy extraordinary cash generation ($6-7B annually) into durable, long-term value creation.
Two paths emerge: (1) Return cash to shareholders via special dividends, or (2) Invest aggressively in FFI (hydrogen, green iron ore) for long-term optionality.
Recommended Path: Balanced approach—60% to shareholders, 40% to FFI scale-up. This delivers shareholder returns while building long-term value in green energy.
STRATEGIC PRIORITY 1: FFI COMMERCIALIZATION ACCELERATION
FFI (Fortescue Future Industries) targets green hydrogen and green iron ore. Current capex is $2-3B, but this should accelerate to $4-6B annually by FY2031.
Target Projects (FY2030-2033): - Green hydrogen pilot facility: 10MW electrolyzer (2031-2032), target 1,000 tonnes/day by 2035 - Green iron pilot: Direct hydrogen reduction of iron ore (2032-2033), targeting 1MT annual capacity - Wind/solar infrastructure: 500-1,000MW capacity by 2033
Financial Targets (FY2035E): - FFI EBITDA: $500-700M annually - Green hydrogen price: $4-5/kg (profitable at 60-80% cost of grey hydrogen) - Green iron ore premium: +$15-20/tonne (premium for emissions-free product)
ROI & Payback: - Hydrogen electrolyzer: 8-12% IRR (acceptable for long-term infrastructure) - Green iron ore: 10-15% IRR (attractive if premium materializes) - Payback: 7-10 years (acceptable for strategic infrastructure)
STRATEGIC PRIORITY 2: MINING AUTONOMY CONSOLIDATION
Maintain technology leadership through continued investment in AI, automation, and cost reduction.
Capex Focus (FY2030-2032): - Next-generation autonomous truck fleet (50+ new vehicles annually) - AI drill systems deployment across all mines - Predictive maintenance systems (ML-driven) - Workforce reduction through attrition (maintain flexibility)
Target Outcomes: - Cost curve improvement to $28-32/tonne (maintain lowest-cost position) - Safety improvement (autonomous systems = fewer accidents) - Production efficiency (24-hour operations)
CAPITAL ALLOCATION FRAMEWORK
FY2030-2032 Annual FCF: $6.5-7.0B
Allocation: - FFI capex: $4-6B annually - Mining capex (replacement): $800M-1.0B annually - Special dividends: $500M-1.0B annually - Buybacks: $500M-1.0B annually - Debt reduction: As needed to maintain credit rating
Message to Market: "Fortescue is balancing shareholder returns with long-term value creation through FFI. This positions us for earnings sustainability when commodity prices normalize."
RISK MANAGEMENT
Risk 1: FFI Cost/Scaling Risk (Probability: 20-25%) Hydrogen production costs may not fall as fast as expected, or scaling encounters technical challenges. Mitigation: Pilot projects, partnerships, technology licensing from global leaders.
Risk 2: Green Premium Disappears (Probability: 15-20%) If green hydrogen becomes commodity, premium for "green iron ore" may disappear. Mitigation: Build brand/premium positioning; contract with ESG-focused customers.
Risk 3: Commodity Price Collapse (Probability: 15-20%) Core mining business becomes challenged. Mitigation: Maintain optionality; consider FFI accelerated expansion in downturn (counter-cyclical).
RECOMMENDATION
Invest aggressively in FFI while maintaining mining excellence. This balances near-term shareholder returns with long-term value creation. Forrest's vision of "green iron ore" is credible and positions Fortescue uniquely in industry.
The 2030 Report — Macro Intelligence